Power Balances
Picture credit: Pilgrim Scales – Himalayas – Photographed by: Aditi Sen What does the UK 2029 election look like now? Apart from a long way off. After Sunak’s Slaughter I felt the Tory Party would regain a hundred seats, mainly […]
Foreign Travails
Happy New Year, to one and all ! We never trust the start of January: short weeks and this year, lots of geopolitical and markets noise. This, along with a market with a cyclical playbook, and lessons from Central Asia. […]
Round-up
The turn of the rate cycle, the waning of the West, stochastic staffing. Plus, the strategic benefits of Slav-on-Slav violence, the end of Zip Car, of the Bill Gates Climate Office, and new life for Round Up. The trend stayed […]
Dance of the Seven Veils
This time we cover Reeves leading us a merry dance, AI losers and tactical voting. By last weekend I realised the long budget run up was a dance of deceit and seduction, offered not to the voter nor the media, […]
Weighing or voting?
I am struck by the brilliance of the old sentiment, “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine” from Benjamin Graham, and even more impressed by how it […]
Exterminators needed
A pretty good year, lots of all time highs, the FTSE creeping towards 10,000, rates falling, no recession, a Federal Reserve that can’t believe its luck, peace of a kind in the Middle East. So inevitably thoughts turn to banking […]
Potemkin Politics
How have British politicians fared this year, and what does the future look like, behind all the brave facades? Do the regional elections next year matter? What does the betting market tell us? Is Reeves’s mess redeemable? The Tory Party […]
Blowing bubbles
We take a look out from the COVID saga, and bubbles are apparent, but fiscal expansion and falling rates persist. Fuel for the fire The extraordinary COVID crisis saw everything shut down, except fresh government borrowing, then everything was released, […]
Drifting Apart
We look at signs of the end of the post WWII settlement, at the harassing of the Federal Reserve and what Trump winning looks like (not great). Rift or just a crack ? There are two world views, either Trump […]
What a mess !
It has been an oddly busy summer: Trump, a nervous Fed, India, a destabilised UK government and a hopeless French one. Trump is becoming a parody of himself, although there are, at last, signs of the much-vaunted checks and balances. […]