Aspects of the ‘New Normal’
The new normal, more Old Labour, what is a ‘handle’, will property ever revive, how durable is the renewables bounce? When do numbers matter to us ? Same old It looks like the new normal is no Middle East peace, […]
investment markets
Unforgiven
Burnham as the continuity Labour candidate, markets rotating through assets at dizzying speed, seasonality, and higher interest rates must come. You must win, in order to rule The Labour Party for much of the last century was a recognisable progression […]
Madness Takes Control
Burnham’s rise, market implications, new Federal Reserve, interest rate expectations. And inter galactic speculation, up like a rocket… New Governor, Old Rates In US Fed Governor Warsh we get a real economist, even if inevitably with an Ivy League law […]
TIME TO STEP BACK
Keoladeo – five islands receding in a bird sanctuary in India – a fading bigger picture. A messy market, with the tech bulls in charge, but deep uncertainty as the first half starts to wind down. A new Antwerp? We […]
The Bears Make Sense …
Mind the clutter is the message from the UK local elections, and markets rotating. The local elections highlighted Starmer’s inability to fight another general election, but perhaps not more than that. They also demonstrated Kemi can’t win either. Indeed, it […]
Casting about
The impact of the Iranian War, what Reform is not, casting about for crumbs: levels to think about buying. How bad? The War has few impacts on the USA: like any bombarding fleet, it can after all, just sail away. […]
Dunkelflaute
Rachel Grieves, Orcs and Goons, China’s paradox, soft budgeting and where the Great Reform Act went wrong – a gloomy calm. Weakness through strength The China paradox was neatly laid out by George Magnus, author of Red Flags*, at a […]
HAMMER AND CYCLE
A look at the re-industrialisation idea, how it affects markets fleeing Tech, and Pershing Square Holdings. Back on shore Re-industrialisation is now pretty embedded in UK party policies, of all colours. It is implicit both in the Biden subsidy schemes, […]
Power Balances
Picture credit: Pilgrim Scales – Himalayas – Photographed by: Aditi Sen What does the UK 2029 election look like now? Apart from a long way off. After Sunak’s Slaughter I felt the Tory Party would regain a hundred seats, mainly […]
Foreign Travails
Happy New Year, to one and all ! We never trust the start of January: short weeks and this year, lots of geopolitical and markets noise. This, along with a market with a cyclical playbook, and lessons from Central Asia. […]