Casting about
The impact of the Iranian War, what Reform is not, casting about for crumbs: levels to think about buying. How bad? The War has few impacts on the USA: like any bombarding fleet, it can after all, just sail away. […]
investment markets
Dunkelflaute
Rachel Grieves, Orcs and Goons, China’s paradox, soft budgeting and where the Great Reform Act went wrong – a gloomy calm. Weakness through strength The China paradox was neatly laid out by George Magnus, author of Red Flags*, at a […]
HAMMER AND CYCLE
A look at the re-industrialisation idea, how it affects markets fleeing Tech, and Pershing Square Holdings. Back on shore Re-industrialisation is now pretty embedded in UK party policies, of all colours. It is implicit both in the Biden subsidy schemes, […]
Power Balances
Picture credit: Pilgrim Scales – Himalayas – Photographed by: Aditi Sen What does the UK 2029 election look like now? Apart from a long way off. After Sunak’s Slaughter I felt the Tory Party would regain a hundred seats, mainly […]
Foreign Travails
Happy New Year, to one and all ! We never trust the start of January: short weeks and this year, lots of geopolitical and markets noise. This, along with a market with a cyclical playbook, and lessons from Central Asia. […]
Round-up
The turn of the rate cycle, the waning of the West, stochastic staffing. Plus, the strategic benefits of Slav-on-Slav violence, the end of Zip Car, of the Bill Gates Climate Office, and new life for Round Up. The trend stayed […]
Weighing or voting?
I am struck by the brilliance of the old sentiment, “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine” from Benjamin Graham, and even more impressed by how it […]
Potemkin Politics
How have British politicians fared this year, and what does the future look like, behind all the brave facades? Do the regional elections next year matter? What does the betting market tell us? Is Reeves’s mess redeemable? The Tory Party […]
Blowing bubbles
We take a look out from the COVID saga, and bubbles are apparent, but fiscal expansion and falling rates persist. Fuel for the fire The extraordinary COVID crisis saw everything shut down, except fresh government borrowing, then everything was released, […]
Drifting Apart
We look at signs of the end of the post WWII settlement, at the harassing of the Federal Reserve and what Trump winning looks like (not great). Rift or just a crack ? There are two world views, either Trump […]